Euro tries to recover ahead of US inflation data release

The euro started Tuesday, November 10, 2026, with currency traders paying increased attention to US economic statistics, the Fed’s monetary policy, and the outlook for interest rates in the US and the eurozone.

The dollar’s dynamics remain of fundamental importance for the European currency. If US statistics come in stronger than expected, this could support the dollar and create additional pressure on EUR/USD. Conversely, signs of a slowing US economy could revive buying interest in the euro.

What influenced the euro on Monday, November 9

At the start of the week, the European currency attempted a recovery. According to FOREX data, the EUR/USD pair rose towards the 1.1160 mark in the first half of Monday. The euro was supported by the ECB’s rather hawkish stance.

After the October meeting, the regulator kept interest rates unchanged, but ECB President Christine Lagarde indicated that a further increase in borrowing costs in December could not be ruled out. The market priced in about an 80% probability of a 0.25 percentage point rate hike. This was one of the factors supporting the euro.

Other important events on Monday included:

• Business activity and investor sentiment in the eurozone. Market participants focused on the Sentix index, which reflects investor sentiment. Its reading was 2.4 points, down from 2.7 points previously. This pointed to some deterioration in sentiment.
• Chinese statistics. Released producer and consumer inflation data were of interest to the euro due to the close trade ties between the European economy and China.
• Speeches by Fed officials. The market followed comments from Michelle Bowman, Austan Goolsbee, and Thomas Barkin. Any hints of further tightening in US monetary policy could support the dollar.
• The oil market and the situation around Iran. The continuing decline in oil prices amid hopes for a diplomatic resolution of the Middle East conflict slightly improved the outlook for the European economy, which is sensitive to energy costs.

However, the euro has not yet been able to take advantage of all the circumstances that could strengthen it. In particular, the dollar previously received support thanks to strong US employment statistics: nonfarm payrolls in the US in October totaled 165,000 against a forecast of only 65,000. This reinforced expectations that the Fed’s tight policy would persist.

What will affect the euro on Tuesday, November 10

On Tuesday, FOREX participants will primarily await the release of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for October.

According to the published economic calendar, the following figures are expected:

Release time — 15:30 Kyiv time. These figures could significantly affect EUR/USD.

If inflation comes in above forecasts, the dollar is likely to be supported. Investors may start pricing in a longer period of tight Fed policy, as well as a higher probability of an additional increase in US interest rates in December. That would be a negative signal for the euro.

If inflation comes in below expectations, the situation could shift in favor of the European currency. Easing inflationary pressure would allow for a softer Fed policy and potentially reduce the dollar’s attractiveness.

In addition to the CPI, on Tuesday it is worth watching the following events:

• Speech by Fed official Christopher Waller;
• Weekly ADP statistics on US employment changes;
• Speeches by US central bank officials Logan, Schmid, and Bowman;
• China’s foreign trade data, which could affect investors’ overall attitude toward risky assets.

Euro outlook

Thus, on Tuesday, US inflation will be the main reference point for the foreign exchange market. Before the CPI release, the euro may trade relatively calmly, but after the data is out, volatility is likely to increase.

For now, the fundamental picture remains mixed. On the one hand, the euro is supported by expectations of a possible ECB rate hike in December and lower energy costs. On the other, the strong US labor market and persistent inflationary pressure in the US favor the dollar.

In the short term, much will depend on which of the two central banking systems — the Fed or the ECB — gives the market more reason to expect high interest rates to be maintained. That standoff is most likely to determine the future direction of EUR/USD.

Technical levels: analysts note the nearest resistance for EUR/USD in the area of 1.1275–1.1300, and important support at around 1.1100.