World Bank revises oil and food price forecasts

The World Bank has significantly raised its forecast for global commodity price growth in 2026 - from 16% to 23%. The expected rise in energy prices has been revised from 24% to 32%. At the same time, experts forecast further growth in food commodity prices over the next year.

This is stated in the October issue of Commodity Markets Outlook, published by the World Bank on October 28.

Compared to April estimates, the forecast for commodity price increases in 2026 has been raised by 7 percentage points, and for energy by 8 points. This reflects the deterioration in global supplies of oil, gas and other raw materials due to military conflicts and disruptions in international trade.

The average price of Brent oil in 2026, according to the new forecast, will be $91 per barrel. In April, the World Bank expected $86. For comparison, in 2025, the average Brent price was $69. In 2027, analysts forecast it will decline to $79 per barrel.

According to the World Bank, global oil production in 2026 will decrease by 5.2% - the largest drop in more than four decades, excluding the crisis year 2020. At the same time, consumption will decrease by 2.5%. Because demand exceeds production, countries are forced to use accumulated reserves, which increases market vulnerability to new disruptions.

Food commodities, per the forecast, will rise by approximately 10% in 2026 and another 7% in 2027. The cumulative increase over two years will be about 18%. Among the main reasons are disruptions in grain supplies, high fuel and fertilizer prices, as well as the El Niño weather phenomenon threatening crops in a number of regions around the world.

The World Bank also expects fertilizer prices to rise by 14% in 2026, industrial metals by 25%, and precious metals by 40%. Demand for industrial metals is supported by investments in data centers, electric vehicles, and renewable energy.

Analysts warn of the risk of even more significant price increases. If the conflict in the Middle East escalates, damage to Russian oil infrastructure continues, and attacks on grain shipments through the Black Sea intensify, the situation on commodity markets may worsen.

Under an adverse scenario, the average Brent price in 2027 could reach $105 per barrel, and food commodities could be 12% more expensive than the baseline forecast assumes. The World Bank emphasizes that the combination of energy crisis, grain supply problems, and adverse weather conditions could intensify food insecurity worldwide.

At the same time, the baseline scenario assumes a gradual easing of price pressure: after a 23% increase in 2026, the overall commodity price index may decrease by 7% in 2027. This forecast is based on the assumption that conflicts affecting global supplies will not escalate significantly.

Based on materials: World Bank - Commodity Markets Outlook, October 2026, World Bank - April 2026 forecast